The Oscar Race
By Ignacio Zamorano
News Editor
While January and February feature remarkably weak Hollywood release lineups, it is the yearly window we have to catch up on the contenders for award season, which by now is at full gear. As always, the season is anchored by the Academy Awards, taking place on March 15th this year, with the rest of awards ceremonies mostly serving as precursors to guide us towards accurately predicting who will take the famous golden statuettes home. With a month left until the ceremony, here are the writer’s attempts to gauge the state of the race in the above-the-line categories.
Best Picture:
Nominees: Bugonia (PVOD, Cinéma Moderne: 5150 Boul. St-Laurent), F1 (Apple TV+), Frankenstein (Netflix), Hamnet (on cinemas), Marty Supreme (on cinemas), One Battle After Another (Crave), The Secret Agent (PVOD, Cinéma du Musée: 1379 Sherbrooke St. Ouest), Sentimental Value (PVOD, Cinéma du Musée), Sinners (Crave), Train Dreams (Netflix).
Will Win: One Battle After Another
Might Win: Sinners
Actor in a Leading Role:
Nominees: Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent).
Will Win: Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme)
Might Win: Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another)
Actor in a Supporting Role:
Nominees: Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Delroy Lindo (Sinners), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value).
Will Win: Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)
Might Win: Sean Penn (One Bat After Another)
Directing:
Nominees: Chloé Zhao (Hamnet), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Ryan Coogler (Sinners).
Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)
Might Win: There are no certainties in life, but if there happened to be, one of them would be PTA finally receiving an Oscar for Best Director this year.
Original Screenplay:
Nominees: Blue Moon (Robert Kaplow), It Was Just an Accident (Jafar Panahi), Marty Supreme (Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie), Sentimental Value (Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier), Sinners (Ryan Coogler).
Will Win: Sinners (Ryan Coogler)
Might Win: Marty Supreme (Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie)
Actress in a Leading Role:
Nominees: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Emma Stone (Bugonia).
Will Win: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)
Might Win: Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You)
Actress in a Supporting Role:
Nominees: Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another).
Will Win: Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)
Might Win: Amy Madigan (Weapons)
Adapted Screenplay:
Nominees: Bugonia (Will Tracy), Frankenstein (Guillermo del Toro), Hamnet (Chloé Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell), One Battle After Another (Paul Thomas Anderson), Train Dreams (Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar).
Will Win: One Battle After Another (Paul Thomas Anderson)
Might Win: Hamnet (Chloé Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell)